Bye bye Berlusconi
@ 2006-04-11 - 20:32:20Well, barring disasters, it seems that Berlusconi has just been squeezed out of office here, though it was hardly a convincing win for Prodi. Rifondazione did well compared to the rest of the centre-left coalition. Still, there was not exactly a party mood in the local party office last night. Someone said it was a meagre victory, which was about right. The exit polls put the left well ahead, and I had visions of re-living 1992, but fortunately it didn’t end quite so badly. Here are some of the figures:
Turn-out was very high – 83.6%, up from 81.4% last time round.
Rifondazione was the only bit of the left coalition to significantly increase its percentage from 2001. It now has 27 out of 317 senate seats (up from 3) and 41 out of 618 in the camera (lower house), up from 11. However, it is hard to make direct comparisons because the electoral system has changed to become more proportional (Berlusconi hoped this would help him win).
Here are some of the key numbers for the centre-left:
Senate:
Left Democrats (ex-CP, now social democrats) 17.5%
Margherita (ex-Christian Democrats, Catholic liberals) 10.7%
Rifondazione Comunista 7.4% (5% in 2001)
Comunisti Italiani plus Greens plus Consumers in a joint list to get over the threshold (yes, really) 4.2%
Camera:
Ulivo (Left Democrats plus Margherita) 31.3% (30.1% in 2001)
Rifondazione Comunista 5.8% (5% in 2001)
Rosa nel pugno (secularists, liberals) 2.6%
Comunisti Italiani 2.3% (the split from Rifondazione which stayed in Prodi’s last govt when Rifondazione left)
How to explain the difference in Rifondazione’s vote for the Senate and Camera? Several possibilities. One: the franchise for the Camera is over-18s, for the Senate over-25s: the Communist vote is ageing. Two: ticket-splitting – people vote for Prodi’s coalition in the Camera then for Rifondazione in the Senate as a ‘conscience’ (Rifondazione made a big deal of the idea that a vote for them was a guarantee that Prodi would deliver a left-ish programme). Three: the united ‘Ulivo’ party made up of the Left Democrats and Margherita is more popular with voters than the two parties standing separately. Four: the Comunisti Italiani were on a joint list with the Greens, making Rifondazione the only straightforward Communist option for the Senate.
Comments: Hide subcomments
just wondering why the RC did not stand candidates in the north is this historical or more tactical.
also is there a feeling that the RC will re join with PCI seeing as they have now re joined the coaliton again. I gather most CPers will be older, I met what looked like a mostly Older RC in fact the speakers looked the younger of the crowd (myself excluded) when i was in Batipaglia for Euro Elections.
 | bellaciao [Member] 2006-04-12 @ 08:23 |
They did stand candidates in the north and have won seats in nearly all the northern regions.
In my local branch I haven't seen anything to suggest that people would want to rejoin with the Comunisti Italiani, but they aren't necessarily representative of the party as a whole (the activists here seem to be more on the left).
2006-04-12 @ 09:37
How is Berlusconi's refusal to accept the result (and his demanding a grand coalition) being intrepreted?
When Schröder refused to accept he'd lost (with even less justification) and demanded to continue being Chancellor (possibly in a grand coalition) people laughed about it - but Schröder's style is quite different to Berlusconi's. No-one really seemed to think that Schröder meant what he was saying.
But isn't Berlusconi serious?
| bellaciao [Member] 2006-04-12 @ 12:23 |
From what I can see the rest of Berlusconi's coalition are already planning for the post-Berlusconi era and just wish he would shut up. I don't think anyone seriously thinks there could be a grand coalition here, not after the vicious election campaign, and I suspect the rest of the right would rather re-group than try and hang on. They desperately want to get rid of him. Arguably Berlusconi's reputation abroad is what lost his coalition the overseas seats which they had created thinking to help themselves.
Apparently the press conference when Berlusconi made the grand coalition proposal was not at all in his usual style, instead it was very serious - perhaps he is trying to play the statesman, I don't know. Anyway he has another month in office while the new President of the Republic (head of state) is elected before Prodi can take over, so we will see.
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